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With two days left until the Iowa caucuses three years in the making, opinion poll results dominate news outlet pages (ahem). The New Year's holiday proves no barrier to the barrage of ever-changing numbers coming out seemingly hourly. In fact the only thing more ubiquitous than poll results is the ever-changing messages those polled are sending.
To wit, just five days ago or so a Bloomberg News Service/L.A. Times poll got much play among newswriters. That extensive poll conjured up a picture of an essentially dead-even race between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Earnest John Edwards within the margin of error in Iowa and Obama edging Clinton by two percent points in New Hampshire. That poll also had Mike Huckabee surprisingly crushing Mitt Romney in Iowa, with a whopping 37-23 percent lead.
Monday, though, a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll had Clinton up 30-26 on Obama, outside the 3.3-point margin of error. On the Republican side, it's Romney making a major comeback to just two points down at 29-27.
Today (or perhaps that should be "as this is being written"), CNN has Clinton with a high score of 33, but just two points up on Obama; Edwards has seemingly dropped off the map at 22 percent. CNN polling director Keating Holland went so far as to suggest that "a three-way race may have effectively become a two-way race." And CNN's got Romney leading 31 to 28 percent. These polls have a 4.5-5 percent margin of error.
What gives? It seems likely voters are making up their minds. And hearts. For it seems that nearly every pollster agrees that voters reckon Clinton and Romney more "electable," but Obama and Huckabee more likeable.
The truth will be revealed on Thursday... |