Mitchell Warren's Oscar Picks

The Oscars will be televised this Sunday, February 24th, and will feature scripted comedy and scripted eloquence. Yes, try to contain your enthusiasm, and please, try not to pressure the awards writers this season. After all, every joke we hear was apparently worth $1.5 billion dollars and we're lucky to have any jokes at all. An Oscar telecast without comfortable, quirky (but still non-confrontational) banter? Priceless! I follow the Oscar shows for the more important reasons: so I can finally eat the large collection chocolate Oscars that I make every year, and so I can display my unparallel ability to predict the winners flawlessly. (And yes, the last few years my predictions have been humbled, humiliated and bashed to death with a bowling pin) So take all of these predictions with a grain of salt...though I did predict an early end to the writer's strike. Then again, isn't that like betting on murder in Paul Thomas Anderson's oily Oscar nominee?

ORIGINAL SONG
Falling Slowly, Glen Hansard, Marketa Irglova (Once)
Happy Working Song, Menken and Schwartz, (Enchanted)
Raise it Up (August Rush)
So Close, Menken and Schwartz (Enchanted)
That's How You Know, Menken and Schwartz (Enchanted)

Who Will Win: I predict That's How You Know, since Enchanted was a popular film and since Menken is a past winner for some of Disney's best animated films.

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille
Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton
Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma

Who Will Win: The last several years has favored upset winners, especially smaller films. I'd bet on Alberto Iglesias, since this is a film that most Academy members can agree they've never seen.

SOUND EDITING
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
The Bourne Ultimatum
There Will Be Blood
Ratatouille

Who Will Win: My gut tells me that There Will Be Blood not only gets the prestige vote, but also featured the most exciting sound effects I can recall. However, sound editing often favors action films like Transformers or Borne. Bet on an upset, since There Will Be Blood will have more opportunities in higher categories.

SOUND
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
The Bourne Ultimatum
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma

Who Will Win: This category seems less impressed with loud noises and more concerned with subtler and more lofty-minded fare. A win here for No Country for Old Men would indicate support for the Coen's technical wizardy--which no one is denying.

MAKEUP
La Vie en Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Who Will Win: Bet on La Vie en Rose. If Norbit or Pirates 3 upset, could Academy members face themselves in the mirror Monday morning?

COSTUME DESIGN
Sweeney Todd
La Vie En Rose
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Who Will Win: Sweeney Todd was not a perfect film but was definitely snubbed in an ultra-competitive year. Expect Sweeney to follow Moulin Rouge's precedent and claim two minor awards as a "Sorry About That!" consolation prize.

ART DIRECTION
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Sweeney Todd
The Golden Compass
American Gangster

Who Will Win: Sweeney Todd again, as Burton's past films (Batman, Sleepy Hollow) have always been appreciated in stylistic categories.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Transformers
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End*
The Golden Compass

Who Will Win: 300 was the true achievement in this category, but was probably deemed a cheater by Academy standards. While not too many folks appreciate Pirates or The Golden Compass, everyone was happy to see Optimus Prime live again. (And not die for once)

EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild

Who Will Win: This is a category that usually defaults to the Best Picture Winner. Therefore, logic tells me this is No Country for Old Men's year. The only upset in this category might be Into The Wild, which many Academy members may remember as a great film snubbed even worse than Sweeney Todd.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement

Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood could upset in this category, as it's a point that few people could argue--There Will Be Blood had a lot more happening shot-for-shot than No Country for Old Men. However, Roger Deakins is the perennial loser (having shot several films for the Coens that have gone overlooked) and could have the momentum, so as long as he doesn't cancel himself out for The Assassination of Jesse James.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Ratatouille
Persepolis
Surf's Up

Who Will Win: You know Disney and Pixar have a cartoon monopoly when a movie as inventive as Persepolis can be rightfully snubbed by a movie featuring an aspiring chef-rat.

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her

Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood was the more daring and impressive achievement than No Country For Old Men (especially when you compare the source material). However, Anderson is a relative junior compared to the Coens who have paid their dues as directors and actually won this category before Anderson was even discovered.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Who Will Win: The more Diablo Cody speaks, the less people seem to like her. (Of course, I'm speaking for myself here) Nevertheless, expect the Academy to ignore this ex-stripper's inane late night chat ability and focus on the brilliance of Juno's screenplay.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Who Will Win: A rather weak category, so expect Ruby Dee to win the emotional vote, as she is an actor's actor with decades of experience (and dues paid) and the only black nominee amongst an international crowd.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Casey Affleck, Jesse James
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem turned in the year's most evil performance and for the first time since 1990's Goodfellas, has made a villainous character as the heart and soul of a crime thriller. Like past winner Joe Pesci, expect Bardem to make a great acceptance speech and to reason with the Academy that he's not really that mean of a guy.

LEAD ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Laura Linney, The Savages

Who Will Win: Ellen Page may have momentum, but try to remember that she is only 20 years old--just as the Academy will, which explains past and future Oscar winner Julie Christie. While you may argue that Reese Witherspoon and Gwyneth Paltrow broke this rule with their Best Actress wins, they were also actresses that were already established movie stars. Page is closer to a senior graduate than a senior A-lister. The upset here could be Cotillard, though there's no promise that enough Academy members have seen La Vie en Rose.

LEAD ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis is the favorite, though some experts are choosing Clooney as a last minute contender. I would suggest that if Clooney wins the award, it will be the first time in recent memory that an actor has won so much for doing so little. Though Michael Clayton was a good film, Clooney carried the picture through his posturing and subtlety. It was a movie star achievement vs. four much better acting performances. Bet on Blood since this is the year the Dark Side prevails.

DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno

Who Will Win: The Academy will surely spill extravagant praise on the Coens (notice I didn't say excessive--the film is that good) for No Country for Old Men--if only so they don't have to admit that a 30-something director made the scariest, most fascinating and most talked-about film of the year. While I concede that Joel and Ethan Coen's career achievement was the better film, it's like comparing great art to great candy. Anderson will have his day in the sun, while No Country for Old Men will take home the gold in 2008.

BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Atonement

Who Will Win: This is the year of the bad boy. No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, with their courageous character studies of the worst human behavior possible, have already given Hollywood something to talk about with the most nominations. To chicken out now and reward something with "heart", like Juno or Michael Clayton, would hardly make a statement. This is the year The Writer has reclaimed his/her honor and you know, sometimes those writer types like the weirdest movies.